MUST-READS

• Scenario-mapping: Iranian conservative media think out Israel’s next steps

  Amid anticipation of Israeli reprisals for Iran’s Apr. 14 attack on military sites in Israel, Iranian media is rife with speculations about possible scenarios ahead. Speaking to pro-reform Sharq daily, controversial pundit and retired professor Sadeq Zibakalam said it would be unwise not to get prepared for the worst-case scenario, referring to all-out war. Reviled by hardliners, Zibakalam has come under sharp criticism from conservatives in recent days over his warnings about major threats ahead.

• Amid threat of war, Iran faces public backlash over hijab crackdown

  Iran has renewed a push to impose the mandatory Islamic dress code. The move follows a call by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei for hijab regulations to be respected. In the aftermath of nationwide anti-establishment protests in 2022, a rising number of women have abandoned headscarves. The current crackdown has prompted strong criticism on Iranian social media, reviving the battle of wills between the state and much of society over obligatory hijab.

• Miscalculation Led to Escalation in Clash Between Israel and Iran

  Aides quickly alerted Jake Sullivan, President Biden’s national security adviser; Jon Finer, the deputy national security adviser; Brett McGurk, Mr. Biden’s Middle East coordinator; and others, who saw that the strike could have serious consequences, a U.S. official said. Publicly, U.S. officials voiced support for Israel, but privately, they expressed anger that it would take such aggressive action against Iran without consulting Washington.

• Iran Attack on Israel: Implications and Oil Market Concerns

  Iran and Israel are now officially out of the shadow war, which was becoming more and more open, especially as the Houthis increased their ability to target Israeli territory with drones and missiles since February.[5] The long-standing threat of Hezbollah on the northern Israeli border has been somewhat contained in a pattern of retaliatory rocket strikes, but may be expanding.[6]  Hezbollah leadership and the US government are communicating indirectly and more frequently, such that the White House was successful in discouraging Israel to directly attack Hezbollah forces in Lebanon shortly after October 7.[7] The daylight between US and Israeli policy toward Lebanon is increasing. The Biden administration does not want to see an Israeli war in Lebanon, but Israel may calculate that now is the best time to both attack Iranian interests and settle its threat on the northern border.

• Saudi Arabia ramps up regional diplomacy to avert Iran-Israel war

  “We are already in an unstable region, and the humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza is already inflaming the region,” Prince Faisal told a press conference with his Pakistani counterpart in Islamabad. “We do not need more conflict in our region; we do not need more confrontation in our region, so it is our position that the de-escalation must be everybody’s priority.”  

• An uneasy alliance of Arab states helped defend Israel from Iran. Their resolve may soon be tested.

  “Those Arab countries are in a very critical situation,” said Oraib Al Rantawi, director of the Al Quds Center for Political Studies, a think tank based in Jordan’s capital, Amman. “There is no easy position to take for all of them, especially Jordan, which for geopolitical reasons has found itself trapped between two troublemakers — Iran and Israel.”

• Iran-Israel conflict poses an existential risk for Lebanon, unless Biden can intervene

  Iran's failed attack on Israel may have sealed Lebanon's fate. Israel undoubtedly has come out the winner in the latest exchange, having killed several key commanders who are said to have played a role in directing Iran's regional network of Arab militias to help Hamas fight Israel in Gaza and help Hezbollah prepare for a potential Israeli attack.

  Israel suffered no fatalities, few injuries and very little damage in the Iranian barrage of over 300 projectiles aimed at military facilities. The US estimates about 140 of the drones and missiles failed due to malfunctions. US forces downed most of the remaining 160 projectiles, with the UK, France, Jordan and Israel's own Iron Dome antimissile system also involved.

• Commentary: Israel-Iran Confrontation Forces Gulf Powers to Choose Sides

  Saudi Arabia and other oil-rich Persian Gulf states have tried to avoid taking a position on America’s geopolitical rivalries in recent years, staying neutral in the Ukraine war and building ties with China. With Israel and Iran in open conflict, they might be forced to choose a side.

  Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates struggled to stay on the sidelines when it became clear last week that Iran would attack Israel in retaliation for a strike in Syria that killed senior Iranian military officers.

• U.S., Not Israel, Shot Down Most Iran Drones And Missiles

  The extent of the U.S. military operation is unbeknownst to the American public, but the Pentagon coordinated a multination, regionwide defense extending from northern Iraq to the southern Persian Gulf on Saturday. During the operation, the U.S., U.K., France, and Jordan all shot down the majority of Iranian drones and missiles. In fact, where U.S. aircraft originated from has not been officially announced, an omission that has been repeated by the mainstream media.

• UK’s Cameron, in Israel, says Israelis have decided to retaliate against Iran
  Israel has clearly decided to retaliate against Iran for missile and drone attacks, Britain's foreign minister David Cameron said during a visit to Israel on Wednesday, the starkest warning yet of another volley coming in regional escalation.
  World powers are striving to prevent a wider outbreak of conflict in the Middle East after Iran's attacks on Saturday night, which involved hundreds of missiles and drones, the first time Iran has directly attacked Israel after decades of confrontation by proxies.

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