MUST-READS

• Erdogan Politically Wounded But Still Turkey’s Dominant Power

  Results of the March 31 nationwide local elections in Turkey represent the first true defeat for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) since its 2001 founding. Although the previous local elections, in 2019, were widely interpreted as a defeat for Erdogan, as the secular Republican People’s Party (CHP) opposition won five of Turkey’s six largest cities – including the two major prizes, Istanbul and national capital Ankara – AKP actually won the elections by most measures: provincial capital mayoralties, provincial assemblies, and village councils as well as overall mayoral vote totals. AKP even won majorities in the Istanbul and Ankara municipal councils in 2019, complicating life for the CHP mayors of those cities.

• Turkey restricts exports of 54 products to Israel until Gaza cease-fire

  As Israel pledged to retaliate, analysts believe the move is aiming to allay growing dismay among Turkey's Islamists for the government’s refusal to sever trade ties with the Middle Eastern country over the Gaza conflict. Read more: https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2024/04/turkey-restricts-exports-54-products-israel-until-gaza-cease-fire#ixzz8WuE3JpMi

• Turkey’s resurgent opposition trounces Erdogan in pivotal local elections
  Turks dealt President Tayyip Erdogan and his party their biggest electoral blow on Sunday in a nationwide local vote that reasserted the opposition as a political force and reinforced Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu as the president's chief rival.
  With most of the votes counted, Imamoglu led by 10 percentage points in the mayoral race in Istanbul, Turkey's largest city, while his Republican People's Party (CHP) retained Ankara and gained 15 other mayoral seats in cities nationwide.

• Russia struggles to collect oil payments as China, UAE, Turkey raise bank scrutiny
  Russian oil firms face delays of up to several months to be paid for crude and fuel as banks in China, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) become more wary of U.S. secondary sanctions, eight sources familiar with the matter said.
  Payment delays reduce revenue to the Kremlin and make them erratic, allowing Washington to achieve its dual policy sanction goals - to disrupt money going to the Kremlin to punish it for the war in Ukraine while not interrupting global energy flows.

• Germany Blocked A Eurofighter Sale To Saudi Arabia, Then Lifted It. Will Berlin Do The Same With Turkey?

  Turkey wants to buy 40 Eurofighters and was revealed in late 2023 to be in talks on a deal with the United Kingdom and Spain. While London and Madrid would happily sell Ankara Typhoons, they can only do so with German approval since Germany is a member of the consortium that developed and built the Eurofighter. Germany is reluctant to approve any deal given its opposition to numerous Turkish government policies, including Ankara’s condemnation of Israel, attacks against Syrian Kurds, acquisition of advanced Russian missiles, and natural gas drilling in the East Mediterranean.

• Turkey says Saudi prince has asked to meet Erdogan at G20
  Turkey's Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said in an interview published on Tuesday that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman had asked for a meeting with Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan and that there was currently no reason not to meet him.
  "Yes, he has asked Erdogan on the phone, whether they could meet in Buenos Aires. Erdogan's answer was 'Let's see'," Cavusoglu told Germany's Sueddeutsche Zeitung newspaper.

• In key concession to Turkey, Iraq bans PKK

  Iraq’s government has banned the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) ahead of an expected visit by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan next month. This comes as Turkey is expected to launch another major offensive against its longtime Kurdish foe inside Iraq this summer. Although the Iraqi ban seemingly stops short of labeling the PKK as a terrorist organization, it represents a major concession—possibly in hopes that Ankara will reciprocate on key issues like trade and water resource management.

• Shock and confusion as Turkey seizes earthquake survivors’ homes

  Habip Yapar felt lucky that his home in southern Turkey withstood last year's devastating earthquake. Then a text message appeared on his phone in October telling him the government was taking ownership of the apartment. The message sent to Yapar, 61, declared that the deeds for his property in Hatay province were being transferred to the Treasury under an amendment to an urban planning law set to affect thousands of earthquake survivors.

• Opinion: Here’s what an uncoordinated US withdrawal from Syria would look like. It’s bad for many partners, but especially Turkey.

  Reports have surfaced regarding the possibility of the United States withdrawing from Syria completely. Despite officials rejecting these reports and a recent vote in the US Senate exhibiting reluctance among lawmakers to leave Syria, news of a potential US exit has been closely monitored by regional actors. Turkey is among them. While Ankara may favor a future US withdrawal from Syria, it desires US coordination. An uncoordinated withdrawal by the United States could pose significant risks for Turkey, leaving the country alone against Iran and Russia.

• Turkey to keep rates steady at 45% as tightening cycle ends: Reuters poll

  Turkey's central bank is expected to keep its key interest rate steady at 45% next week, after a 250 basis-point hike last month, marking the end of its aggressive tightening cycle, a Reuters poll showed on Friday. The monetary policy committee meeting on Feb. 22 comes after Fatih Karahan was appointed central bank governor on Feb. 3 after the resignation of Hafize Gaye Erkan, who cited a need to protect her family from what she called a media smear campaign. All 11 economists surveyed by Reuters agreed that the policy rate (TRINT=ECI), opens new tab will be kept steady this month.

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