Saudi Arabia’s Jadwa Investment’s recent chartbook on the Saudi economy saw a mixed picture in the face of the threat of the Omicron variant, but confirmed good news about the all-important non-oil exports sector of the economy.
The non-oil PMI ended the year at 53.9, a nine month low, as concerns over the Omicron variant impacted sentiment, Jadwa said, but latest available data showed non-oil exports hitting new highs in November, hitting $6.9 billion, with a yearly rise of 26 percent, and a monthly rise of 9%.
In 2021, consumer spending was up 10 percent year-on-year. Within this, POS transactions and e-commerce rose by 32 and 91 percent year-on-year, respectively, while ATM withdrawals were down 7 percent during the year.
The net monthly change to government accounts with SAMA were down by SR87 billion month-on-month in December (23.19 billion),” a trend that is usually seen towards the end of the year,” Jadwa notes. SAMA Foreign Reserve Assets: SAMA FX reserves declined by $9 billion month-on-month in December, to stand at $455.4 billion, slightly lower than our forecast of $466 billion for year end.
On inflation in Saudi Arabia, prices in December rose by 1.2 percent year-on-year, but declined by 0.1 percent month-on-month. Overall in full year 2021, inflation averaged 3.1 percent, compared with our forecast of 3.2 percent, Jadwa notes.
Saudi Arabia’s stock market index, the TASI, recorded a monthly rise of 9 percent in January, pushing it to a 15 and half year high. Looking ahead in the next month or so, we expect positive sentiment related to multi-year high oil prices and forthcoming initial public offerings (IPOs) to sustain some upward momentum in the Saudi index.
[Click here to read the full report from Jadwa Investment] [Arabic]
