in mailchi.mp: Much has been written about how Donald Trump’s election will affect the political and security outlook for the Middle East, including with regard to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the Iranian nuclear program, and U.S. ties with Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Turkey. But how will a second Trump term affect the economic and business outlook for the region? While President-elect Trump is defined most by his unpredictability, we believe a few themes are likely to play out over the next four years partly as a result of the U.S. presidential election: 1) Continued downward pressure on oil prices, and therefore on Gulf budgets and government spending; 2) Greater openness to and appeals for foreign direct investment in the U.S. from Middle Eastern sovereigns and others from the region; and 3) A more complicated landscape of controls on exports to the region of sensitive U.S. technology such as artificial intelligence (AI) semiconductors, weapons and advanced fighter jets, and civilian nuclear energy.
