in fitchratings.com: Aramco announced on 4 March that the performance-related dividend in 1Q25 would be reduced to USD200 million, from USD10.8 billion in 1Q24, while the base dividend rose by 4.2% to USD21.1 billion. It anticipates a total dividend payment of USD85.4 billion over 2025, equivalent to around 7.7% of Fitch-forecast GDP. Around 82% of this should flow directly to the government budget, in line with its equity stake, with a further 16% going to the Public Investment Fund (PIF). We believe this is generally aligned with Fitch’s existing view that total dividend payments will average around USD82 billion a year over 2025-2028. Aramco’s announcement is broadly consistent with our projection in January that the budget deficit would widen to 3.8% of GDP in 2025 and 3.9% in 2026. This forecast assumed oil prices of USD70/barrel (bbl) in 2025 and USD65/bbl in 2026, and that Aramco’s performance dividend would be substantially reduced, reflecting more limited excess cash flow available for distribution from 2024. Fitch also expects the government to cut capex and associated current spending in 2025.
