Via Robert Mogielnicki in thecairoreview.com: The primary actors involved in a potential Saudi-Israeli normalization have strong incentives to portray a deal as a paradigm-shifting event with tremendous, transformative potential for the broader region. This normalization agreement is often described as an all-or-nothing opportunity that will emerge triumphantly within a game-changing grand bargain or else collapse spectacularly. There is good reason to consider another scenario more closely resembling the status quo: a Saudi-Israeli normalization that is considerably less encompassing and transformative than envisioned. Yet many foreign policy priorities of both Saudi Arabia and Israel now appear increasingly disconnected from normalization. The Saudi crown prince—and de facto ruler of the country—craves global recognition. Mohammed bin Salman wants to represent Saudi Arabia at G20 summits, court tech titans and financiers from the U.S. and Europe, and deepen relations with BRICS countries. As far as the Middle East region is concerned, Saudi officials have pursued a policy of de-escalation, which include reestablishing diplomatic relations with Iran and reducing economic pressure on the Houthis.
