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  • Saudi Arabia’s fiscal breakeven oil price is rising fast. What will the kingdom do about it?

    In May of 2023 the International Monetary Fund forecast the kingdom’s breakeven oil price at $80.90 per barrel, which moved it back into a fiscal deficit following its first surplus in nearly a decade. The Fund’s latest forecast, in April, put that figure at $96.20 for 2024; a roughly 19% increase on the year before, and about 32% higher than the current price of a barrel of Brent crude, which is trading at around $73 as of Wednesday afternoon.

  • IMF says oil cuts phase-out will aid Saudi economy

    The phase-out of oil production cuts is expected to help increase Saudi Arabia’s overall growth to 4.7 percent in 2025, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said. However, growth is expected to average 3.7 percent annually beyond 2025, the fund said in its latest staff report. Despite the contraction of 0.8 percent in overall growth last year due to oil production cuts, non-oil GDP grew by 3.8 percent thanks to robust private consumption and non-oil investment.

  • US, Britain, EU to sign first international AI treaty

    The first legally binding international AI treaty will be open for signing on Thursday by the countries that negotiated it, including European Union members, the United States and Britain, the Council of Europe human rights organisation said. The AI Convention, which has been in the works for years and was adopted in May after discussions between 57 countries, addresses the risks AI may pose, while promoting responsible innovation.

  • Pope Francis calls for climate change action during Istiqlal Mosque visit

    Pope Francis on Thursday invited Muslims and Catholics to push global leaders to confront the dangers of climate change and extremism, and spoke of the common roots of different religious beliefs as he visited Southeast Asia's largest mosque in Jakarta. In a day laden with religious symbolism on his trip to Indonesia, the world's most populous Muslim-majority country, the pope issued a joint declaration with the national grand imam and other local faith leaders that called for "decisive action" to address the warming planet.

  • Bahrain, Iran edge closer to normalization despite setbacks

    Signaling a promising development in the region’s diplomatic landscape, Bahrain’s Foreign Minister Abdel Latif bin Rashid Al-Zayani flew to Iran in late July to attend the inauguration of new President Masoud Pezeshkian. The visit was Zayani’s third in recent months. After the sudden death of former president Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash in May, the top diplomat appeared in the Iranian capital to convey condolences on the part of Bahrain’s King. The following month, Zayani participated in a Tehran meeting of the Asian Cooperation Dialogue (ACD).

  • Sustained Economic Growth Hinges on Productivity Gains as Populations Age

    “Productivity isn’t everything,” Paul Krugman wrote in his 1990 book, The Age of Diminished Expectations, “but in the long run it is almost everything.” Productivity is a foundation of prosperity. The only way a country can raise its standard of living sustainably is to produce more with existing or fewer resources. You cannot do that without improving productivity. It’s that simple.

  • IMF Executive Board Concludes 2024 Article IV Consultation with Saudi Arabia

    Oil production cuts led to an overall contraction in growth of 0.8 percent in 2023, albeit non-oil GDP grew by a robust 3.8 percent, driven mostly by private consumption and non-oil investment. The unemployment rate reached historic lows, with women labor force participation rates remaining comfortably above the 30 percent 2030 target. Geopolitical events have not had any major impact on the Saudi economy so far.

  • IMF Saudi Arabia 2024 Article IV Consultation: Press Release and Staff Report

    Saudi Arabia’s unprecedented economic transformation is progressing well. Strong domestic demand is keeping non-oil growth robust while unemployment is at record lows. Inflation is contained and the current account surplus is rapidly narrowing. The recalibration of the authorities’ investment plans would help reduce overheating risks and pressures on fiscal and external accounts.

  • How the Israeli intelligence community got its mojo back

    During these last several days of late August, however, the Israeli intelligence community hit a grand slam by obtaining such exquisite intelligence that it was highly predictive in nature—and not only that, it also likely staved off a wider war. As such, the Israeli intelligence community deserves extraordinary credit for this intelligence coup. According to media reports, the Israelis collected information that not only indicated that Hezbollah was about to launch a significant attack against northern and central Israel, but also the precise time—5:15 a.m. local time on August 25—when the launches would occur and the specific units that would conduct the attacks.

  • Algeria has never seen a smooth transfer of power. It won’t in this election, either.

    Tebboune was first elected in a controversial 2019 poll organized against the backdrop of the Hirak, a mass popular uprising demanding new leadership. The call for transition was a direct challenge to the country’s reigning political order—the shadowy cabal of military and political elites that Algerians refer to as “le pouvoir” (the power).