MUST-READS

• S&P raises Saudi Arabia’s rating 0ver ongoing reforms

  S&P Global Ratings has upgraded Saudi Arabia’s rating to “A+” from “A” with a stable outlook, citing socioeconomic and capital market reforms. Strong non-oil growth and rising oil volumes from 2025 will support medium-term growth prospects, it said. Saudi Arabia’s National Debt Management Centre welcomed the upgrade, saying it would allow the kingdom to issue international bonds and sukuks at more favourable rates. The Saudi finance ministry had previously indicated that Saudi Arabia needed to borrow SAR139 billion ($37 billion) in 2025 to cover its budget deficit.

• Binance secures ‘largest investment ever’ in crypto as Abu Dhabi’s MGX pledges $2 billion

  Emirati state-owned investment firm MGX announced a $2 billion investment into Binance, in what marks the cryptocurrency exchange’s first institutional investment and the “single largest investment” ever paid in crypto. In a joint press release, the firms said the minority stake would be paid for in stablecoins, making it the “largest investment ever” paid in cryptocurrency. Stablecoins are a type of digital asset designed to hold a constant value, typically with a peg to a fiat currency. Abu Dhabi launched the MGX investment firm last year with a focus on AI technology. In September, MGX partnered with the likes of BlackRock and Microsoft to launch a more than $30 billion AI fund, but it had yet to invest in the cryptocurrency industry and blockchain sectors.

• ‘Iran on notice,’ says Pentagon spox of ongoing strikes against Houthis

  U.S. forces are continuing strikes on Houthi sites in Yemen that began over the weekend, Pentagon officials told reporters on Monday, and the strikes will continue until the terrorist group agrees to stop shooting at ships in the Red Sea. The Houthis had apparently not attacked a ship since January, when Israel and Hamas agreed a ceasefire, but said last week that they would respond to Israel's airstrikes and food blockade in Gaza by resuming attacks on "Israeli ships"—whose loose definition has in the past included a broad swath of vessels. Saturday’s initial wave of U.S. airstrikes struck 30 targets, including weapons plants and depots, training sites, and drone-launching sites, said Air Force Lt. Gen. Alexus Grynkewich, the Joint Staff’s operations director.

• Iran, US issue warnings as Yemen emerges as battleground

  The US is escalating its military campaign against Yemen’s Ansarullah movement, also known as the Houthis. In parallel, President Donald Trump has suggested that Washington may retaliate against Iran over any Houthi attack on US forces. Iran has dismissed the threat, saying that Trump has no power over its foreign policy priorities. The Islamic Republic also insists that the Houthis are autonomous in their decision making and do not take orders from Tehran.

• Israeli strikes kill over 400 in Gaza, say Palestinians, ceasefire on brink
  Israeli airstrikes pounded Gaza, killing more than 400 people, Palestinian health authorities said on Tuesday, threatening the complete collapse of a two-month ceasefire as Israel vowed to use more force to free hostages held by Hamas. The Palestinian militant group, which still holds 59 of the 250 or so hostages seized in its October 7, 2023 attack on Israel, accused Israel of breaching the ceasefire and jeopardising efforts by mediators to secure a permanent truce. Israel's prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, said he had told the military to take "strong action" against Hamas in response to the group's refusal to release the remaining hostages and because of their rejection of ceasefire proposals.

• Lebanon and Syria agree on ceasefire after deadly cross-border clashes
  Lebanon's Defence Minister Michel Menassa and his Syrian counterpart Murhaf Abu Qasra agreed on a ceasefire, the Lebanese and Syrian defence ministries said in statements on Monday, as cross-border clashes in the last two days left 10 dead. Three soldiers in Syria's new army and seven Lebanese were killed in border clashes during the past two days, the Syrian defence ministry and Lebanese health ministry said. On the Lebanese side, 52 people were wounded, the health ministry said. The Lebanese and Syrian defence ministers also agreed on continuing contacts between the army intelligence directorates to prevent more deterioration on the border.

• Can Saudi Arabia’s Oil Sustain Its Dominance Amid Global Push for Renewables?

  Saudi Arabia aims to solidify its position as the world’s top oil supplier, with Aramco planning to boost production. The state-owned giant will increase output to 13 million barrels daily by 2030 to meet rising global demand. On March 18, 2025, Aramco outlined its production target as part of Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030, a strategy to diversify the economy and reduce dependence on oil revenues. Analysts highlight how Aramco’s move aligns with growing global tensions and demand, which push oil prices higher. Alongside Aramco, other major Saudi companies like Sabic, Rabigh Refining, and Petrochemicals advance projects that align with the country’s energy goals. These companies focus on developing technologies to boost efficiency and sustainability.

• GCC economic growth to rise to 4 percent in 2025 despite trade headwinds: ICAEW

  In an environment of rising protectionism and persistent geopolitical tensions, the GCC region will remain resilient and is expected to register a GDP growth of 4 percent this year, broadly in line with the consensus and up from an estimated 1.8 percent in 2024. The strong growth in 2025 will be supported by an increase in oil production starting in April, which was confirmed by OPEC+ members recently. However, the global economy’s outlook remains uncertain. The ICAEW recently cut its 2025 world GDP growth forecast by 0.2ppts to 2.6 percent. In the Middle East, GDP is expected to grow slower at 3.3 percent in 2025 amid uncertainty over external demand despite the region being out of President Trump’s direct tariff firing line.

• Will Gulf States Invest in Lebanon Again Amid Hezbollah’s Decline?

  Lebanon and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states have a rich history of mutually beneficial ties. Since the 1950s, highly skilled and educated Lebanese professionals migrated to the Persian Gulf, working in sectors such as business, health, hospitality, media, construction, and tourism. By sending back remittances to Lebanon, these Lebanese expatriates significantly contributed to the Gulf’s development. Before the Lebanese civil war erupted in 1975, Lebanon was also a regional banking center where Gulf Arabs kept their money. Many bought vacation homes in Lebanon and spent summers there. Once a beacon of free speech in the Arab world, Lebanon was home to popular newspapers that gave platforms to influential Arab journalists and intellectuals who did not have the same opportunities in their own countries. The Gulf states, along with Libya and Iraq, invested in Beirut-based publishing houses and print media.

• Gulf LNG faces a bearish headwind from US energy dominance

  Since 2016 the US has transformed into the world’s largest LNG exporter, eclipsing Australia and Qatar. Donald Trump is now determined to achieve global energy dominance as he exploits the geopolitical leverage conferred by those exports in his relations with Europe, Asia and the GCC. At a time when the US is already the world’s largest oil producer, pumping 13.5 million barrels a day (mbd) against Saudi Arabia’s 9 mbd, Trump’s ambition to increase natural gas production by 60 percent will have a significant impact on the trade flows and geopolitics of the global LNG market over the next five years. The sheer scale of US natural gas production in the past two decades, from reservoirs in North Dakota to Texas’s Permian Basin, has meant that US prices averaged $3.50 per million BTU (British thermal unit), 70 percent below the spot LNG prices prevailing in Europe and Asia.

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