MUST-READS

• GCC economies to forge ahead despite geopolitical risks

  The growth forecast for the Middle East and Central Asia was revised slightly lower – to 2.8 per cent in 2024, from 2.9 per cent in January – largely due to the impact of conflict on trade and economic activity, as well as high debt levels in low-income countries in the region. The latter was also the focus of a World Bank report released last week.

  However, the outlook for the GCC economies remains relatively robust, with non-oil growth forecast at 3.6 per cent this year and a predicted headline gross domestic product growth of 2.4 per cent.

• The world must adapt to a new generation of GCC sovereign-owned investors

  Instead of recycling revenues from oil exports into, say, US Treasuries for future generations, sovereign wealth is being used to kick-start a regional economic and infrastructure transformation, both through regional investment and international tie-ups. They are seeking to achieve their objectives by sharpening their strategies, investing in human capital (with both homegrown talent and expatriates) and hiring the world’s best advisors.

• Iran’s military stays on ‘high alert’ as diplomacy ‘relies on Gaza’

  While details remain unclear, Israel is suspected of having targeted military sites in central Iran and early warning facilities in Syria. The Iranians were informed that there would be Israeli activity via two regional channels carrying a message from the US, Amwaj.media has learned. Speaking on condition of anonymity, an Arab diplomatic source alleged that Israel was planning to strike earlier this week, but that the targets it chose were vetoed by the Joe Biden administration. Amwaj.media could not independently confirm this assertion.

• Stephen Kotkin: The Five Futures of Russia

  Readers seeking odds on Russia’s trajectory should consult the betting markets. What Western officials and other decision-makers need to do, instead, is to consider a set of scenarios: to extrapolate from current trends in a way that can facilitate contingency planning. Scenarios are about attempting to not be surprised. Needless to note, the world constantly surprises, and something impossible to foresee could occur: the proverbial black swan. Humility is in order. Still, five possible futures for Russia are currently imaginable, and the United States and its allies should bear them in mind.

• Israel’s Iran attack carefully calibrated after internal splits, US pressure
  Israel's apparent strike on Iran after days of vacillation was small and appeared calibrated to dial back risks of a major war, even if the sheer fact it happened at all shattered a taboo of direct attacks that Tehran broke days earlier.
  Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's war cabinet had initially approved plans for a strike on Monday night inside Iranian territory to respond forcefully to last Saturday's missile and drones from Iran, but held back at the last-minute, three sources with knowledge of the situation said.

• The U.S. Prevented War, Yet Iran’s Strategic Decision-Making Process Remains Flawed

  The Israeli military is believed to have carried out strikes against a target in Isfahan, central Iran, on April 19. This action was reportedly in retaliation for Iran’s April 13 missile and drone attack against Israel, which itself was in response to Israel’s April 1 targeting of the Iranian Consulate in Damascus, Syria. While these exchanges of attacks and counterattacks have the potential to escalate and engulf the entire Middle East region in conflict, they did not escalate further. Encouraged by the United States, both Israel and Iran exercised restraint and may even glean lessons in prudence from the crisis. However, the Iranian regime should reassess its strategic decision-making process to minimize the risk of dangerous miscalculations.

• Splashy Saudi mega-project NEOM chases Chinese funds

  Bigwigs behind a Saudi megacity dogged by questions about its viability have wrapped up a tour courting Chinese investors, detailing plans for a futuristic ski resort and 170-kilometre-long skyscrapers. The roadshow for NEOM, brainchild of de facto ruler Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, travelled from Beijing to Shanghai to Hong Kong, where for two days would-be business partners flocked to a chic museum to peruse eye-popping renderings in various stages of development. No major deals were announced, and top project officials did not address recent reports that NEOM's ambitious construction and population targets are being rolled back.

• Cinema ticket prices to go down drastically in Saudi Arabia as Film Commission slashes licensing fees

  Cinema ticket prices are expected to go down drastically in Saudi Arabia following the decision of the Film Commission to cut licensing fees for practicing and operating cinemas.  The Board of Directors of the Film Commission, chaired by Minister of Culture Prince Badr bin Abdullah, approved the decision to reduce the financial fees for licenses. These include the fees for licenses to practice the activity of operating permanent and temporary cinemas, licenses for cinemas for specialized needs, and licenses for operating permanent and temporary cinemas, and cinemas for specialized needs.

• How Saudi Arabia’s new economic cities can make manufacturing more sustainable

  As the world marks International Mother Earth Day on April 22, Saudi Arabia continues its effort to mitigate the effects of climate change, accelerate its transition to green energy, promote sustainability, and protect natural habitats through the Saudi Green Initiative. Launched in 2021, one key SGI target is to reduce carbon emissions by 278 million tonnes per annum by 2030 and to achieve net zero by 2060. The Kingdom hopes to reach this milestone through investments in renewable energy sources like wind and solar.

• Saudi’s PIF and STC agree deal to create region’s largest telecom tower company
  Saudi Arabia's sovereign wealth fund PIF has agreed to buy a 51% stake in Telecommunication Towers Company Ltd (TAWAL) from STC Group (7010.SE), opens new tab, paving the way for the creation of the region's largest telecom tower company, PIF and STC said on Monday. Under the agreement, PIF and STC will combine TAWAL and Golden Lattice Investment Company (GLIC) to set up a newly-formed company with around 30,000 mobile tower sites and estimated annual revenues of around $1.3 billion, they said in a joint statement.

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