MUST-READS

• Israel, Hezbollah trade fire across Lebanon border amid alarm over Gaza war spillover

  Air raid sirens sounded across northern Israel on Saturday as Lebanon's Iranian-backed Hezbollah group said it fired rockets at Israel, and Israel said it struck a "terrorist cell" in retaliation, as top U.S. and EU diplomats visited the region seeking to keep the war from spreading.

  Fighting raged on inside Gaza, especially in and near the southern city of Khan Younis, where the Israeli military said it had killed three members of the militant Palestinian Hamas group that rules the densely populated coastal strip.

• US intelligence confirms Islamic State’s Afghanistan branch behind Iran blasts

  Communications intercepts collected by the United States confirmed that Islamic State’s (ISIS) Afghanistan-based branch carried out twin bombings in Iran that killed nearly 100 people, two sources familiar with the intelligence told Reuters on Friday.

  "The intelligence is clear-cut and indisputable," one source said.

  That source and a second, both of whom requested anonymity to discuss the sensitive issue, said the intelligence comprised communications intercepts, without providing further details. The collection of the intercepts has not been previously reported.

• Jordanian army says five killed in battle to stop Syrian drug smugglers

  Jordan's army said on Saturday that five drug and weapons smugglers linked to Iranian militias operating in southern Syria had been killed after infiltrating from Syria.

  The kingdom has promised to respond to what it says is an alarming rise in such incursions, accusing Syria of failing to stem Iranian-run smuggling networks.

  Jordanian officials, like their Western allies, say the operations are controlled by Lebanon's Iranian-backed Hezbollah group and other pro-Iranian militias who control much of southern Syria after supporting President Bashar al-Assad in a civil war that has lasted almost 13 years.

• Opinion: Lesson of the Strike That Killed Soleimani

  Here is the lesson: The Iranians’ strategic decision-making is rational. Its leaders understand the threat of violence and its application. It takes will and capability to establish and maintain deterrence. We were able to reset deterrence as a result of this violent couplet. The Iranians have always feared our capabilities, but before January 2020, they doubted our will. The bombing of the memorial ceremony for Soleimani in Iran on Wednesday that killed dozens of civilians isn’t an example of deterrence but likely internal factions struggling for power.

• Saudi Arabia Cuts Oil Prices to Asia as Market Weakness Persists

  Oil consumption typically eases during February and March, with refiners using the period to shut some facilities for periodic maintenance. At the same time, strong global supply, including from the US, is raising the likelihood of a surplus that forced the OPEC+ group, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, to extend output cuts into this year.

• Saudi Arabia’s Avalon Pharma plans IPO on main market

  Saudi pharmaceutical manufacturer Middle East Pharmaceutical Industries Company, known as Avalon Pharma, on Sunday said it would sell shares on the Saudi Exchange's Main Market through an initial public offering (IPO).

  The company has received approval to offer six million shares, or 30% of its issued share capital, with final pricing to be determined following a Jan. 14-18 book-building period, a company statement said.

• Towns Empty and Farms Languish as War Stalks Israeli-Lebanese Border

  The border between Israel and Lebanon has become a landscape of abandoned towns and neglected farms as escalating tensions and tit-for-tat strikes between Israeli forces and Hezbollah militants have displaced more than 150,000 people in both countries.

  Prospects for an end to the cross-border hostilities have grown only dimmer since the assassination on Tuesday of a senior Hamas leader in a suburb of Beirut, the Lebanese capital, fed growing fears of a wider war. The strike has been widely ascribed to Israel.

• Saudi Arabia’s fund has a gargantuan appetite for deals

  The PIF also stood out for the size of its investments: of 49 last year, three were the largest in their industry. It spent $4.9bn on US gaming group Scopely in April, bought Standard Chartered’s aircraft leasing business for $3.6bn and took over the steel unit of Saudi chemicals group Sabic for $3.3bn. Other investments have included 8 per cent of Nintendo, 10 per cent of Heathrow airport and 49 per cent of UK hotel chain Rocco Forte. The dealmaking is the result of a recent overhaul of the 53-year-old fund by Prince Mohammed. In 2015, he decided the PIF would drive the modernisation and diversification of the Saudi economy, with a view to prepare for peak oil and cater to the needs of the country’s young and restive 36mn-strong population.

• Israeli defence minister outlines new phase in Gaza war

  Defence Minister Yoav Gallant on Thursday outlined his plans for the next stage of Israel's war in Gaza and his vision of a future arrangement which would see the enclave run by a Palestinian body under overall Israeli security control.

  He said the military would base its strategy on a new, more targeted approach in the northern section of the enclave and a continuing pursuit of Hamas leaders in the south.

• Iran’s oil trade with China stalls as Tehran demands higher prices

  China's oil trade with Iran has stalled as Tehran withholds shipments and demands higher prices from its top client, tightening cheap supply for the world's biggest crude importer, refinery and trade sources said.

  The cutback in Iranian oil, which makes up some 10% of China's crude imports and hit a record in October, could support global prices and squeeze profits at Chinese refiners.

  The abrupt move, which one industry executive called a "default", could also represent the backfiring of an October U.S. waiver on sanctions of Venezuelan oil, which diverted shipments from the South American producer to the U.S. and India, elevating prices for China as shipments dwindled.

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