MUST-READS

• Saudi Arabia opens applications for mining licences as it eyes $2.5tn minerals haul

  Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Industry and Mineral Resources has opened pre-qualification applications for the ninth round of exploration licence competitions, covering three mineralised belts spanning 24,946sq km. The licensing round is part of a broader strategy to accelerate greenfield exploration and development in the Kingdom’s mining and mineral sector, maximise its mineral resources valued at $2.5tn and enhance value-added mineral supply chains. The ministry specified that the targeted belts include the Al Naqrah Belt and the Al Sukhaybirah “Al Safraa” Belt in the Madinah region, as well as the Al Duwaihi “Nabaitah” Belt in the Riyadh region.

• Saudi Arabia targets $2.9bn Red Sea tourism spend and 28,000 jobs as it becomes yachting hub

  In collaboration with its partners, SRSA has accelerated infrastructure development along the Red Sea, issuing 29 tourism licences that have strengthened the economic landscape for yacht tourism. Among these, three licences were granted to yacht chartering companies, 10 to marina operators, and five to technical service providers in leisure and tourism, fostering a thriving marine tourism ecosystem. The Red Sea region, spanning 1,800km of coastline, is home to more than 1,000 islands, 150 pristine beaches, and 3,200 cultural and tourism assets, including heritage villages, markets, and active maritime ports.

• Reimagining Syria: A Roadmap for Peace and Prosperity Beyond Assad

  For more than a decade, the conflict in Syria appeared too intense, too complex, and too intertwined in geopolitics to be resolved, with the international community choosing to prioritize managing and containing the symptoms rather than seeking to resolve their root causes. However, that all changed in late 2024, when armed opposition groups toppled the Assad regime in 10 days. Today, the country remains extraordinarily fragile and marked by the debilitating effects of a lengthy civil war. Despite a widespread national consensus on the need to reunify Syria, malign and destabilizing actors remain active, including ISIS, Iran, and pro-Assad loyalist insurgents. Nevertheless, there is now a historic opportunity to reshape Syria for the first time in more than half a century. And engagement by the international community will be critical to the country’s success.

• Arab states to keep talking with Trump envoy on Egypt’s Gaza plan
  Arab foreign ministers said on Wednesday they would continue consultations with U.S. President Donald Trump's special envoy over Egypt's plan for rebuilding the Gaza Strip, an alternative to Trump's proposed takeover of the Palestinian territory. Consultations and coordination on the plan would continue with the U.S. special envoy, Steve Witkoff, as a "basis for the reconstruction efforts" in Gaza, according to a joint statement following a meeting of the foreign ministers in Doha. Earlier this month, Arab leaders adopted a $53 billion Egyptian reconstruction plan for Gaza that would avoid displacing Palestinians from the enclave, in contrast to Trump's vision of a "Middle East Riviera".

• Oil, dollars, and debt: How safe is the Middle East from the global trade war?

  Direct impact from tariffs, like the U.S. levies on steel and aluminum imports, have just a minimal impact on the Middle East, economists say. The Gulf region, for instance, accounted for roughly 16% of U.S. aluminum imports in 2024, led by the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, Standard Chartered MENA Economist Carla Slim told CNBC. While those sectors may be affected, analysts say, the hit will be minor. But the blow to growth from a trade war is likely to hurt the price of oil, the mainstay of the region’s economy. There are also immediate costs to countries whose currencies are pegged to the dollar, such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Oman, and Bahrain. The U.S. dollar has been selling off since the start of the year, making imports for countries with dollar pegs more expensive – a challenge for a region highly dependent on goods from abroad.

• US envoy in Qatar for talks on extending fragile Gaza ceasefire

  The White House's envoy, Steve Witkoff, is in Qatar to join indirect talks between Israel and Hamas on extending the fragile ceasefire in Gaza. This week, negotiators from both sides have begun meeting mediators for the first time since President Donald Trump took office on 20 January. The 42-day first phase of the Gaza deal and temporary truce came into effect on the eve of his inauguration. That first phase ultimately saw Hamas return 25 living Israeli hostages and the remains of eight others - in exchange for about 1,800 Palestinian prisoners held by Israel – as well as five living Thai hostages. It ended on 1 March. Israel now hopes the US can advance a plan for a two-month truce extension, which would start with the release of about half of the living hostages still held. Hamas has so far rejected that, demanding immediate talks on the second phase in the original ceasefire agreement, which would end the war and lead to a full Israeli troop withdrawal.

• Navigating volatility: The impact on GCC economies

  The optimism is welcome – but it may be misplaced. This week the Riyad Bank Purchasing Managers’ Index in Saudi Arabia hit its highest level in more than 10 years – a significant vote of confidence in the Arab world’s largest economy. There was positive news too on jobs in the kingdom. Employment rose “solidly” last year, the survey found. Elsewhere, the local advisory house Jadwa Investment reported that consumer spending in Saudi Arabia rose by 7.5 percent last year – implying that ordinary people are happy to spend rather than save for the unforeseen. Government revenue and spending were also higher than budgeted, Jadwa said, using finance ministry figures. So far, so good.

• Aramco Ventures invests in global climate tech startups

  The venture capital arm of Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest listed oil major, has invested in two climate tech startups. Aramco Ventures said it had invested in Ucaneo, a German company that is developing a direct air capture (DAC) demonstration plant expected to be commissioned in the first half of 2026. Ucaneo raised €6.75 million ($7.34 million) in seed funding last September and has launched its first industrial pilot, which is designed to capture up to 30 to 50 tonnes of CO₂ annually. Aramco Ventures also led the $30 million series A funding — typically the second stage in capital raising — for the US-based climate technology company Spiritus. Other companies investing included Khosla Ventures, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries America, and TDK Ventures, Spiritus said.

• Saudi Arabia’s Deficit to Widen as Aramco Dividend Normalises

  Aramco announced on 4 March that the performance-related dividend in 1Q25 would be reduced to USD200 million, from USD10.8 billion in 1Q24, while the base dividend rose by 4.2% to USD21.1 billion. It anticipates a total dividend payment of USD85.4 billion over 2025, equivalent to around 7.7% of Fitch-forecast GDP. Around 82% of this should flow directly to the government budget, in line with its equity stake, with a further 16% going to the Public Investment Fund (PIF). We believe this is generally aligned with Fitch’s existing view that total dividend payments will average around USD82 billion a year over 2025-2028. Aramco’s announcement is broadly consistent with our projection in January that the budget deficit would widen to 3.8% of GDP in 2025 and 3.9% in 2026. This forecast assumed oil prices of USD70/barrel (bbl) in 2025 and USD65/bbl in 2026, and that Aramco’s performance dividend would be substantially reduced, reflecting more limited excess cash flow available for distribution from 2024. Fitch also expects the government to cut capex and associated current spending in 2025.

• Saudi banks to see stronger performance in Q1 2025: Fitch

  Saudi banks are set for a stronger start to 2025, with their asset-quality metrics expected to “remain strong” throughout the year, Fitch Ratings said in its latest report. The agency noted that lower interest rates helped boost Saudi bank’s net interest margins (NIMs) in Q4 2024, supported by strong lending growth. Fitch further stated, “We expect [Saudi banks’ lending growth] to continue outpacing Gulf peers' in 2025.” In Q4 2024, Saudi banks’ combined net income rose to SAR 21.5 billion, from SAR 20 billion in the previous quarter. This was driven by the rapid lending growth and lower cost of risk, “both underpinned by the healthy operating environment,” the agency added. Saudi banks’ total lending, according to Fitch, is estimated to grow by 12% in 2025. “Further interest rate cuts and stronger liquidity conditions should underpin banks’ growth appetite,” it wrote.

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