MUST-READS

• Saudi Aramco Oil Sales to China Set to Fall Sharply in April

  Saudi Aramco is set to supply the lowest amount of oil to China in several months, even as the OPEC+ cartel gears up to boost output. The state-owned Saudi Arabian major will send 34 million to 36 million barrels of April-loading crude to customers in China, the world’s biggest importer, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That compares with 41 million for March, and a figure below 36 million would be the smallest since at least the first half of last year.

• Saudi Aramco, IEA Chiefs Clash In Houston Over The Future Of Oil

  With the CERAWeek 2025 conference in Houston drawing to a close, C-Suite executives, ministers and top officials have weighed in on the trajectory of the global oil and gas sector with experts debating whether tariffs, trade, and competition will replace security, affordability, and sustainability in shaping energy markets and policy. However, one of the biggest highlights of the conference has been the showdown between Saudi Aramco’s CEO Amin Nasser and IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol and their highly divergent views on the future of the global oil industry. Once again, the Aramco CEO was adamant that there were “inherent flaws” in the energy transition away from conventional fuels, saying, “So I pay little attention to forecasts claiming that next year will be peak this, or peak that,” in a thinly-veiled dig at the IEA which has predicted a peak in oil demand by the end of the current decade.

• Saudi Arabia’s Deficit to Widen as Aramco Dividend Normalises

  Aramco announced on 4 March that the performance-related dividend in 1Q25 would be reduced to USD200 million, from USD10.8 billion in 1Q24, while the base dividend rose by 4.2% to USD21.1 billion. It anticipates a total dividend payment of USD85.4 billion over 2025, equivalent to around 7.7% of Fitch-forecast GDP. Around 82% of this should flow directly to the government budget, in line with its equity stake, with a further 16% going to the Public Investment Fund (PIF). We believe this is generally aligned with Fitch’s existing view that total dividend payments will average around USD82 billion a year over 2025-2028. Aramco’s announcement is broadly consistent with our projection in January that the budget deficit would widen to 3.8% of GDP in 2025 and 3.9% in 2026. This forecast assumed oil prices of USD70/barrel (bbl) in 2025 and USD65/bbl in 2026, and that Aramco’s performance dividend would be substantially reduced, reflecting more limited excess cash flow available for distribution from 2024. Fitch also expects the government to cut capex and associated current spending in 2025.

• Aramco’s Flagship Jafurah Gas Project is Not A Gamechanger for Saudi Arabia

  Operations at Saudi Arabia’s Jafurah shale gas field – the country’s largest unconventional non-oil associated gas site and arguably one of the biggest outside the U.S. – will begin this year, according to a comment last week from Saudi Aramco’s president and chief executive officer, Amin Nasser. The oil and gas giant added that Phase 1 is expected to produce 200 million standard cubic feet per day (Mscfd) of gas this year, with the figure set to rise to 2 billion standard cubic feet per day (Scfd) by 2030. The projected numbers would mark around a 60% increase in Aramco’s gas output capacity, enabling it to meet rising domestic power demand. It could also allow it to reduce the level of crude oil burned in power generation that might be monetised by exporting it, and lay the foundations for significant gas exports in the future as well. The key question for dedicated Saudi Arabia watchers arising from any such statement from the Kingdom over the years is simply how much of it is true?

• Saudi Aramco cuts crude oil prices for Asia

  Saudi Aramco has lowered its crude oil prices for Asian buyers in April, marking the first reduction in three months. This price cut aligns with market expectations and follows the decision by OPEC+ to gradually increase oil supply starting this month. According to an official statement, the official selling price for the benchmark Arab Light crude has been reduced by 40 cents, now standing at $3.50 per barrel above the average price of Oman and Dubai crude.

• Saudi Aramco Weighs Bid for BP’s Castrol Lubricant Assets

  Saudi Aramco is considering a potential offer for lubricant assets being sold by BP Plc, as the Middle Eastern company pushes for acquisitions that deepen its reach in oil consuming countries, according to people with knowledge of the matter. The world’s biggest energy company is studying whether to bid for part or all of the business, which operates under the Castrol brand name, the people said. Aramco could look to combine the Castrol assets with its Valvoline lubricants unit, which it bought in a $2.65 billion deal completed in 2023. Aramco is particularly interested in Castrol’s operations in fast-growing markets like India, the people said, asking not to be identified because the information is private. Its Mumbai-listed subsidiary Castrol India Ltd. has a market value of about $2.5 billion.

• Aramco Trims World’s Biggest Payout in Blow to Saudi Budget

  Saudi Aramco expects the total payout to be about $85 billion in 2025, compared with $124 billion last year, it said in a statement Tuesday. The lower distribution, in line with previously announced policy, has been in focus for investors and economists alike as the payout has become a crucial component of the kingdom’s budget amid a multitrillion-dollar plan to transform the economy. The decision represents a crucial choice for the Saudis — risk increasing stress on Aramco’s balance sheet or let the kingdom’s budget deficit widen. The company had flipped into a net-debt position recently, a sharp turnaround from the over $27 billion in net cash a year ago. Last year, the total dividend was almost $40 billion higher than free cash flow — the money left over from operations after accounting for investments and expenses.

• Saudi oil giant Aramco posts drop in full-year profit, slashes dividend

  Saudi state oil producer Aramco reported on Tuesday a decline in net profit to $106.2 billion in 2024, down from $121.3 billion in 2023. The company said it expects total dividends for 2025 of $85.4 billion — a significant fall from 2024′s total of $124.2 billion. This comes as it cut its total payout for the fourth quarter. The oil giant said its base dividend for the final three months of the year would be increased to $21.1 billion, but its performance-linked payout would be just $200 million. This compares to a third-quarter base dividend of $20.3 billion and a performance-linked dividend of $10.8 billion. Lower oil prices hit the company’s net profit last year as crude production around the world increased and demand slowed. Amarco’s realized oil price — the final price the company receives for selling its crude after accounting for transport costs and other factors — dropped to $80.2 per barrel in 2024 from $83.6 the year prior.

• Saudi deficit to rise after $40bn loss in Aramco oil dividends

  A projected 30 percent drop in Saudi Aramco’s oil dividends in 2025 is likely to force the government and state-owned Saudi Public Investment Fund to step up borrowing to fund infrastructure and other projects under the kingdom’s Vision 2030 economic and social strategy, analysts say. The world’s largest oil company intends to cut dividends to shareholders by $38.8 billion in 2025 compared to last year. This would leave the Saudi government and Saudi PIF – which between them own 97.5 percent of Aramco – facing a drop in revenue larger than the GDP of Zimbabwe. Saudi Arabia’s budget deficit is likely to increase as a result, analysts say, although the country should be able to maintain spending on infrastructure projects by tapping international debt markets.

• Sonatrach and Saudi Aramco cut March LPG prices by 1-3%

  Saudi Aramco and Algeria's Sonatrach have cut March's official selling prices (OSPs) for liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) by 0.9-3.2% from the previous month because of lower oil prices and weak global LPG demand, traders said on Monday. Aramco's March OSP for propane was cut by $20 to $615 a metric ton while butane prices were dropped by $20 to $605 a ton, the traders said. Propane and butane are types of LPG with different boiling points. LPG is used mainly as fuel for cars and heating as well as a feedstock for other petrochemicals.

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