MUST-READS

• China’s economy beats forecasts in 2024, braces for trade war
  China's economy ended 2024 on better footing than expected helped by a flurry of stimulus measures, although the threat of a new trade war with the United States and weak domestic demand could hurt confidence in a broader recovery this year. Exports, one of the few bright spots, could lose steam as United States President-elect Donald Trump, who has proposed hefty tariffs on Chinese goods, is set to return to the White House next week. For the full-year 2024, the world's second-largest economy grew 5.0%, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data showed on Friday, meeting the government's annual growth target of around 5%. Analysts had forecast 4.9% growth.

• What’s behind Egypt and China’s ‘golden decade’ of partnership

  The beginning of 2025 marked the end of the “Year of the Egyptian-Chinese Partnership” and closed out the “golden decade”: A ten-year period during which Egypt and China grew their bilateral relationship as part of their efforts to deepen their comprehensive strategic partnership. Given the trajectory of the relationship over the past ten years, expect to see a larger Chinese presence in Egypt—a country that has long been one of the United States’ most important allies in the Middle East.  The 2024 partnership year ended with Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty visiting Beijing on December 13 for a meeting with his counterpart, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi. This came shortly after Egyptian Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly’s visit to Beijing in September to attend the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation. While there, a delegation from the Suez Canal Economic Zone (SCZone) signed one billion dollars’ worth of contracts and memoranda of understanding with Chinese companies.

• Saudi Oil Exports to China Set for February Decline

  According to a Reuters report citing unnamed trade sources, Saudi oil shipments to China next month would stand at 43.5 million barrels, which would be down from 46 million barrels this month. Aramco is seen reducing deliveries to CNOOC and PetroChina while boosting deliveries to Sinopec and Sinochem. Earlier this week, Aramco raised the price of its flagship crude grade, Arab Light, by $0.60 per barrel to a premium of $1.50 a barrel over the Oman/Dubai average, the benchmark off which Middle Eastern crude oil going to Asia is priced, a price list seen by Bloomberg showed on Monday.

• China-US tech tensions threaten GCC telecom strategy

  Gulf countries risk being dragged into the great power “rivalry” between China and the United States when it comes to advanced technology, forcing them to pick a side. As high-tech restrictions are rolled out by Beijing and Washington, the days of buying state-of-the-art semiconductors from the US while installing China’s 5G networks might be over, according to industry insiders. Mohammed Soliman, director for strategic technologies and cybersecurity at the Middle East Institute, says GCC countries have so far managed to strike a balance between exploiting Chinese technology and maintaining strong ties with the US. “However, the intensifying US-China rivalry will make accessing both tech ecosystems increasingly difficult, impacting supply chains, intellectual property and talent flows,” Soliman warns.

• Saudi Group Announces 1 GW of Renewables as Part of $50 Billion China Investment

  Saudi Arabia energy major ACWA Power announced it is developing more than 1 GW of renewable energy projects in China. The company in reports published Dec. 31 said the portfolio includes solar and wind power installations that would be owned jointly by ACWA Power and Chinese renewable energy developers. ACWA Power in a statement to Tadawul, the Saudi stock exchange, confirmed that the projects are sited across China and are in advanced stages of development. Yunhe Lyu, who leads ACWA’s operations in China, earlier in December said the company plans to invest as much as $50 billion to build renewable energy projects in that country by the end of this decade. Lyu said ACWA envisions as much as 20 GW of renewable energy generation capacity, along with development of green hydrogen projects.

• The year ahead in the Middle East: A weakened Iran has big implications for China

  For a significant period of time, Iran’s status as a rising power within the region has been regarded as a consistent reality in assessing Middle Eastern geopolitics. But events since the Oct. 7, 2023 attack by Hamas on Israel have seen Iran’s position in the region erode substantially. The balance of power in the Middle East has consequently been irreversibly altered. A key pillar supporting Iran’s previously powerful status in the Middle East has been its cultivation of the “Axis of Resistance,” a group of Iranian allies across the region that acted together against Israeli and American interests. The members of the axis, in addition to Iran itself, include Hamas, Hezbollah, Iraqi Shiite militias, the Houthis and Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria.

• China’s Wemart opens first branch in Saudi Arabia

  Chinese Ambassador to Saudi Arabia Chang Hua announced the launch of the first branch of the Chinese hypermarket chain Wemart in Saudi Arabia. “I am delighted to launch the first Chinese Wemart hypermarket in Riyadh. There is a wide range of Asian goods and foods, and all vegetables are produced on its own farm. I would like to thank my fellow ambassadors for joining us today,” the Chinese Ambassador said on X.

• Visualizing China’s Cobalt Supply Dominance by 2030

  Chinese dominance over critical minerals used in technologies like smartphones, electric vehicles (EVs), and solar power has become a growing concern for the U.S. and other Western countries. Currently, China refines 68% of the world’s nickel, 40% of copper, 59% of lithium, and 73% of cobalt, and is continuing to expand its mining operations. This graphic visualizes the total cobalt supply from the top 10 producers in 2030, highlighting China’s dominance. The data comes from Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, as of July 2024

• UAE becomes Africa’s largest investor, overtaking China

  The UAE has emerged as Africa’s largest backer of new business projects, with Emirati companies committing $110bn (£88bn) to projects between 2019 and 2023, including $72bn in renewable energy, The Guardian reports citing FT Locations. These pledges outpace investments by the UK, France, and China, as traditional investors scale back. African leaders have also welcomed the UAE’s increased financial interest, particularly for green energy and infrastructure. “African countries are in dire need of this money [for] their own energy transitions,” Ahmed Aboudouh, associate fellow at Chatham House was quoted as saying. “But at the same time, [Emirati investors] come in with less attention to labour rights, to environmental standards.” The UAE’s investment ambitions align with its strategy to diversify from oil and gas. Major players include Dubai’s DP World, operating six African ports, and Abu Dhabi Ports, which has expanded in Guinea, Egypt, and Angola. In Zambia, International Resource Holdings—a conglomerate linked to Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed—secured a surprise $1.1bn deal for a 51 per cent stake in Mopani Copper Mines.

• The Year ahead in the Middle East: A weakened Iran has big Implications for China

  For a significant period of time, Iran’s status as a rising power within the region has been regarded as a consistent reality in assessing Middle Eastern geopolitics. But events since the Oct. 7, 2023 attack by Hamas on Israel have seen Iran’s position in the region erode substantially. The balance of power in the Middle East has consequently been irreversibly altered. A key pillar supporting Iran’s previously powerful status in the Middle East has been its cultivation of the “Axis of Resistance,” a group of Iranian allies across the region that acted together against Israeli and American interests. The members of the axis, in addition to Iran itself, include Hamas, Hezbollah, Iraqi Shiite militias, the Houthis and Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria.

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