MUST-READS

• Saudi Crown Prince, Putin discuss bilateral cooperation and Ukraine conflict

  The Crown Prince emphasized the Kingdom’s commitment to doing everything possible to support dialogue and find a political solution to the conflict in Ukraine. The Russian President expressed his continued support for these efforts, according to the SPA. The conversation followed a Tuesday meeting in Jeddah, where Ukrainian and American officials convened under the auspices of Saudi Arabia to discuss Ukraine-Russia ceasefire proposal. At the meeting, Ukraine expressed readiness to accept the US proposal for a 30-day interim ceasefire, with Washington committing to discuss proposals for a lasting peace that ensures Ukraine’s long-term security.

• Saudi leader parlays oil wealth into global diplomatic clout

  Saudi Arabia, a country that is largely made up of desert, has fewer than 40 million people, and boasts a middling military with no nuclear arms, may be emerging as the 21st century’s most improbable superpower. He has drawn closer to China, and to Russia, as a fellow oil producer. He has been welcomed into the BRICS economic coalition of countries in the Global South. And he is also a major player on two international policy fronts where his interests and Washington’s could clash. The first is artificial intelligence and technology, a centerpiece of Crown Prince Mohammed’s vision of a post-oil economy. He has earmarked billions of dollars to attract experts, researchers, and entrepreneurs in AI to visit, teach, invest, and set up shop in Saudi Arabia. U.S. officials are worried that this initiative could transform the kingdom into a sanctions-busting back door for China, as Beijing seeks top flight technology.

• Saudi Arabia has highest penetration rate of women professional gamers globally: Saudi prince: Video
  HRH Prince Faisal bin Bandar Al-Saud, chairman of the Saudi Esports Federation, said on Thursday at CONVERGE LIVE that the country has had the opportunity to show that professional gaming is a “real career path with no baggage for women”.

• ‘Golden era’ for GCC capital markets as global investors cash in on $2.3 trillion powerhouse
  GCC capital markets have undergone an unprecedented transformation, soaring to a collective market capitalisation of $2.3 trillion by the end of 2024, with international investors increasingly viewing the region as a long-term structural investment opportunity rather than a tactical allocation. “The pace of reforms in this region has been phenomenal and stakeholders in each market have a powerful and persuasive story to tell global investors,” said Nabeel Albloushi, HSBC’s Regional Head of Markets & Securities Services for the Middle East North Africa & Türkiye (MENAT) region, speaking to Arabian Business at the HSBC MENAT Future Forum in Dubai this week. “We are living our golden era right now,” said Karim Tannir, Head of Banking for MENAT at HSBC Holdings. “If I have to pick one sector that demonstrates the growth and momentum in the region, I would have to say the capital markets, specifically the IPO markets…which has become world-leading, with issuances among the largest by volume.”

• Saudi Arabia opens applications for mining licences as it eyes $2.5tn minerals haul

  Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Industry and Mineral Resources has opened pre-qualification applications for the ninth round of exploration licence competitions, covering three mineralised belts spanning 24,946sq km. The licensing round is part of a broader strategy to accelerate greenfield exploration and development in the Kingdom’s mining and mineral sector, maximise its mineral resources valued at $2.5tn and enhance value-added mineral supply chains. The ministry specified that the targeted belts include the Al Naqrah Belt and the Al Sukhaybirah “Al Safraa” Belt in the Madinah region, as well as the Al Duwaihi “Nabaitah” Belt in the Riyadh region.

• Arab states to keep talking with Trump envoy on Egypt’s Gaza plan
  Arab foreign ministers said on Wednesday they would continue consultations with U.S. President Donald Trump's special envoy over Egypt's plan for rebuilding the Gaza Strip, an alternative to Trump's proposed takeover of the Palestinian territory. Consultations and coordination on the plan would continue with the U.S. special envoy, Steve Witkoff, as a "basis for the reconstruction efforts" in Gaza, according to a joint statement following a meeting of the foreign ministers in Doha. Earlier this month, Arab leaders adopted a $53 billion Egyptian reconstruction plan for Gaza that would avoid displacing Palestinians from the enclave, in contrast to Trump's vision of a "Middle East Riviera".

• Oil, dollars, and debt: How safe is the Middle East from the global trade war?

  Direct impact from tariffs, like the U.S. levies on steel and aluminum imports, have just a minimal impact on the Middle East, economists say. The Gulf region, for instance, accounted for roughly 16% of U.S. aluminum imports in 2024, led by the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, Standard Chartered MENA Economist Carla Slim told CNBC. While those sectors may be affected, analysts say, the hit will be minor. But the blow to growth from a trade war is likely to hurt the price of oil, the mainstay of the region’s economy. There are also immediate costs to countries whose currencies are pegged to the dollar, such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Oman, and Bahrain. The U.S. dollar has been selling off since the start of the year, making imports for countries with dollar pegs more expensive – a challenge for a region highly dependent on goods from abroad.

• US envoy in Qatar for talks on extending fragile Gaza ceasefire

  The White House's envoy, Steve Witkoff, is in Qatar to join indirect talks between Israel and Hamas on extending the fragile ceasefire in Gaza. This week, negotiators from both sides have begun meeting mediators for the first time since President Donald Trump took office on 20 January. The 42-day first phase of the Gaza deal and temporary truce came into effect on the eve of his inauguration. That first phase ultimately saw Hamas return 25 living Israeli hostages and the remains of eight others - in exchange for about 1,800 Palestinian prisoners held by Israel – as well as five living Thai hostages. It ended on 1 March. Israel now hopes the US can advance a plan for a two-month truce extension, which would start with the release of about half of the living hostages still held. Hamas has so far rejected that, demanding immediate talks on the second phase in the original ceasefire agreement, which would end the war and lead to a full Israeli troop withdrawal.

• Aramco Ventures invests in global climate tech startups

  The venture capital arm of Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest listed oil major, has invested in two climate tech startups. Aramco Ventures said it had invested in Ucaneo, a German company that is developing a direct air capture (DAC) demonstration plant expected to be commissioned in the first half of 2026. Ucaneo raised €6.75 million ($7.34 million) in seed funding last September and has launched its first industrial pilot, which is designed to capture up to 30 to 50 tonnes of CO₂ annually. Aramco Ventures also led the $30 million series A funding — typically the second stage in capital raising — for the US-based climate technology company Spiritus. Other companies investing included Khosla Ventures, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries America, and TDK Ventures, Spiritus said.

• Saudi Arabia’s Deficit to Widen as Aramco Dividend Normalises

  Aramco announced on 4 March that the performance-related dividend in 1Q25 would be reduced to USD200 million, from USD10.8 billion in 1Q24, while the base dividend rose by 4.2% to USD21.1 billion. It anticipates a total dividend payment of USD85.4 billion over 2025, equivalent to around 7.7% of Fitch-forecast GDP. Around 82% of this should flow directly to the government budget, in line with its equity stake, with a further 16% going to the Public Investment Fund (PIF). We believe this is generally aligned with Fitch’s existing view that total dividend payments will average around USD82 billion a year over 2025-2028. Aramco’s announcement is broadly consistent with our projection in January that the budget deficit would widen to 3.8% of GDP in 2025 and 3.9% in 2026. This forecast assumed oil prices of USD70/barrel (bbl) in 2025 and USD65/bbl in 2026, and that Aramco’s performance dividend would be substantially reduced, reflecting more limited excess cash flow available for distribution from 2024. Fitch also expects the government to cut capex and associated current spending in 2025.

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