MUST-READS

• US push for a ‘Middle East Nato’ failed to emerge during Iran strikes

  The Islamic Republic’s Saturday attack on Israel was a made-for social media moment. It was also the ultimate test of US efforts to cobble together a coalition of Arab states and Israel in a so-called Middle East Nato, to jointly defend an attack from Tehran. Israel, the US, France, the UK, and Jordan managed to intercept around 99 percent of the drones, ballistic missiles and cruise missiles fired at Israel by Iran in retaliation for an attack on its embassy in Damascus, Syria. Radar and early warning systems that the US maintains at its military bases across the Gulf were instrumental in tracking the slow-moving armada of missiles and drones, current and former US, Israeli and Arab officials told MEE, adding that the US was able to scramble jet fighters from Saudi Arabia and Qatar at the last minute to particpate in the operation.

• Dubai’s high-end property sales rise on overseas demand
  Sales of homes in Dubai worth $10 million or more rose 6% in the first quarter versus last year, an industry report showed on Tuesday, as demand from the international ultra-rich for homes in the emirate showed little sign of abating.
  A total of 105 homes worth an overall $1.73 billion were sold from January to March, up from around $1.6 billion a year earlier, according to property consultancy Knight Frank.

• Biden unlikely to cut Iran’s oil lifeline after Israel attack
   Iran's unprecedented missile and drone strike on Israel is unlikely to prompt dramatic sanctions action on Iran's oil exports from the Biden administration due to worries about boosting oil prices and angering top buyer China, said analysts.
  Shortly after Tehran launched its weekend attack - retaliation for Israel's suspected April 1 strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus - House Republican leaders accused President Joe Biden of failing to enforce existing measures and said they would take up this week a series of bills to sharpen sanctions on Iran.

• Israeli forces vow response to Iran’s attack despite calls for restraint
  Israelis awaited word on how Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would respond to Iran's first-ever direct attack as international pressure for restraint grew amid fears of an escalation of conflict in the Middle East.
  Netanyahu on Monday summoned his war cabinet for the second time in less than 24 hours to weigh a response to Iran's massive weekend missile and drone attack, a government source said.

• Precision fire: A strategic assessment of Iran’s conventional missile program

  “Precision Fire: A Strategic Assessment of Iran’s Conventional Missile Program,” authored by Bilal Y. Saab, senior fellow and director of the Middle East Peace and Security Initiative at the Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security, and Michael Elleman, consulting senior fellow for missile defense at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, analyzes the political and military challenges posed by Tehran’s potentially more accurate missiles and assesses how Washington and its regional partners could counter Tehran’s likely aims

• Iran’s “Limited Response” Pleases Hardliners and Used Channels with the US

  Iran’s operation against Israel was not unprovoked. On April 1, Israel attacked the consular section of the Iranian embassy in Damascus with F-35s, killing seven officers of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as well as six Syrians and a major Hezbollah official. Brigadier General Mohammad Ali Zahedi, former IRGC Ground Forces Commander and head of the Lebanon-Syria Unit of the external branch of the IRGC, the Quds Force, was the top official killed in the Israeli airstrike.

• Erdogan Politically Wounded But Still Turkey’s Dominant Power

  Results of the March 31 nationwide local elections in Turkey represent the first true defeat for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) since its 2001 founding. Although the previous local elections, in 2019, were widely interpreted as a defeat for Erdogan, as the secular Republican People’s Party (CHP) opposition won five of Turkey’s six largest cities – including the two major prizes, Istanbul and national capital Ankara – AKP actually won the elections by most measures: provincial capital mayoralties, provincial assemblies, and village councils as well as overall mayoral vote totals. AKP even won majorities in the Istanbul and Ankara municipal councils in 2019, complicating life for the CHP mayors of those cities.

• Saudi defense minister receives phone call from US counterpart

  Saudi Minister of Defense Prince Khalid bin Salman received on Sunday a phone call from U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin. During the call, they reviewed the strategic partnership between the two countries in the military and defense fields and ways to strengthen them. The ministers also discussed the recent military escalation in the region, the danger of its repercussions, and the efforts being exerted to contain these developments in a way safeguarding international peace and security, the Saudi Press Agency reported.

• Why Another Drawdown Of America’s Oil Reserve Could Happen

  The motivation there for the OPEC+ ministers would be to avoid the inevitable demand destruction that $100/barrel oil prices have caused in the past. It is a motivation that makes sense for countries whose long-term economic health remains highly dependent on strong demand for crude oil. The question, though, becomes how quickly OPEC+ is willing to act to readjust its production targets, given that the group acted just last week to reaffirm commitments to lower quotas it has had in place since last summer. With the Brent price already over $91/bbl and the US summer driving season rapidly approaching, the prospect of a near-term rise to the $100 mark is not really all that remote.

• Saudi Arabia arrests over 20,000 violators of residency, labour and border security laws in a week
  The Saudi Ministry of Interior said that 20,667 individuals were arrested for residency, labour, and border security violations in a nationwide sweep from April 4 to 10.
  Of them, 14,805 have been arrested for residency violations, 3,860 for border breaches and 2,002 for labour violations.

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