SUSRIS.com shares an assessment of the surge in recent diplomatic activity from Gulf expert Theodore Karasik, Director of Research and Development at the Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis (INEGMA) in Dubai.
“A day before the meeting in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia agreed to an American request to provide a base to train moderate Syrian opposition fighters. A senior Obama administration official stated that “We now have the commitment from the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia to be a full partner in this effort — the train-and-equip program — to host that program,” who added that discussions were underway to determine the specific site and other details. According to an Arab official, this training program will involve up to 10,000 fighters for the Syrian theater. This program raises a few questions. First, exactly how will these 10,000 fighters be vetted? Are these individuals the same Syrian Free Army trainees—numbering near 2000—who went through training programs in Jordan? How long will the training program take? Estimates are that the training program in Saudi Arabia will take at least eight months. These fighters for the Syrian theater may be needed much sooner than that for a successful coalition effort. Nevertheless, the program is important. In addition, there are other areas of MENA such as Libya where there is likely to be further GCC action against extremists particularly Libya where action has already be seen. This activity may take the form of airstrikes and special operators on the ground.”
